Why I own Apple
Started May 21 2008 at 9:22AM (EST) (By guliamo)
We were talking about AAPL getting back to $200 and sure enough - here it is. But there is no real wonder. Apple is quadruple and there are no competitors with as much as a double play. I'll explain:
I predict that in 5 years your life will look like this:
You'll come home from work, stick your iPhone into it's slot on the 50" Apple TV screen, you'll turn the TV on and you'll see a screen looking much like iTunes. You'll then decide if you want to here music from your collection, rent a movie from iTunes or even shop on Amazon and pay through your iPhone / Apple account.
It is clear that the more a buying process that the corporation ownes, the more succesfull it will be in fending off competition. Now check this out, Apple creates:
Hardware (iPhone, MAC and your future TV screen)
Software (iTunes, Leopard)
Communications (iPhone billing rev share)
and.. MEDIA! (selling songs, movies, ringtones)
No one else even comes close!
Microsoft sells only software.
Dell sells only hardware
Verizon sells only communications
Warner Bros Sell only content.
All these players can play on but it won't be long before they have to play ball with Stevie J, Cuz I bought my beautiful 50" TV at the Apple store, I buy my music on iTunes and if the HBO back episode isn't for rent on iTunes I guess I'll just rent something else..
I predict Apple will see $400 within the next 5 years. This company is run brilliantly.
I predict that in 5 years your life will look like this:
You'll come home from work, stick your iPhone into it's slot on the 50" Apple TV screen, you'll turn the TV on and you'll see a screen looking much like iTunes. You'll then decide if you want to here music from your collection, rent a movie from iTunes or even shop on Amazon and pay through your iPhone / Apple account.
It is clear that the more a buying process that the corporation ownes, the more succesfull it will be in fending off competition. Now check this out, Apple creates:
Hardware (iPhone, MAC and your future TV screen)
Software (iTunes, Leopard)
Communications (iPhone billing rev share)
and.. MEDIA! (selling songs, movies, ringtones)
No one else even comes close!
Microsoft sells only software.
Dell sells only hardware
Verizon sells only communications
Warner Bros Sell only content.
All these players can play on but it won't be long before they have to play ball with Stevie J, Cuz I bought my beautiful 50" TV at the Apple store, I buy my music on iTunes and if the HBO back episode isn't for rent on iTunes I guess I'll just rent something else..
I predict Apple will see $400 within the next 5 years. This company is run brilliantly.
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3 Comments
Top 24%
arawak
May 21 2008 at 3:28PM (EST)
You have finally swayed me. I chuckled at AAPL going down to 135 (and forecasted such if I may toot my horn) but I believe there is indeed support at the 200 level. To an extent they will be insulated from the downturn in the US as 1) their customers are likely of the wealthier set and 2) they are ever-expanding overseas. Plus, they do technology right. Working in the tech field, I am ever amazed at the amount of semi-functional hardware and software out there.
Top 6%
StockShark
May 22 2008 at 3:41AM (EST)
You are overlooking a very important point. Only 4 years ago Apple was a niche company for designer computers. The company was worth about $10 billion. They have had huge success in entering new markets and are now worth over $150 billion.
The thing to remember is that when companies reach these sizes they can't continue to grow at those rates anymore. Apple is now dealing in so many areas which means they have very complicated logistics and lots of overhead - it's not just a small computer company employing mostly engineers anymore. They now support huge arrays of customer services, marketing and sales.
I just don't see the share going anywhere near $400, IMHO it will dance around the $200 mark for the next few years which means I'm looking for more promising venues.
Top 1%
guliamo
May 22 2008 at 4:37AM (EST)
You are simply incorrect, my friend. Apple may have added on logistics naturally but they seem to be doing a fantastic job even at that!
Let's look at profit margins - the best indicator of effective marketing and logistics:
Dell - 4.82%
Time warner - 8.47%
Disney (DIS) - 11.95% (and this is a media company!)
Hewlett Packard (HPQ) - 7.29%
Apple - 15.13%
Some times it's hard to admit, but these guys are the best. no doubt.