Top 1%
I would be very careful right here in the market (like you can't be and still be alive at this point). A number of indicators are telling me that we are going south shortly (maybe starting tomorrow?) and this could be a doozy. I expect WMT to miss tomorrow (and I have a lot of company based on option action today). Techs and transports look to be setting up to roll over and the next wave down will be substantial. Crude and other commodity recoveries are a head fake. Bubbles are bursting. The ultimate trend is definitely down in my opinion and to levels currently felt by most to be improbable if not impossible.
If you don't believe in technicals or their significance have a look at a couple macro articles and do your own figuring: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_depression and http://www.futurecasts.com/Depression_descent-end-%2730.html Do you see any parallels? That big sucking sound you are hearing is the sound of deflation. US dollar rises, commodities fall, housing falls, markets fall. But this could never happen right? Forewarned is forearmed.
Top 98%
ramigabai
Aug 14 at 3:38 ET
I just sold my airline holdings yeterday.. Looks like it's time to balance by short on S&P
Top 59%
tanh1o
Aug 14 at 4:25 ET
I'm in the red zone currentky. I hold WMT, are you already out of WMT now?
Top 59%
tanh1o
Aug 14 at 4:32 ET
Man, just saw the chart, it's extremely volatile!
Do you think the price is going to bounce up or will drop more than current - 57.88.
The situation with market signals is very controversial, the lastest news are about loosing a union-free status in Canada, before that WMT announced its Q2 2009 Revenue a bit higher than analysts's estimates.
Top 1%
guliamo
Aug 14 at 8:25 ET
I'm not big on technical analysis and do believe the markets are always in the business of uncertainty.. My strategy remains the same - I only pick companies that are set to b e a great growth story. It's always been the same story.
Top 5%
ContraryOne
Aug 14 at 9:08 ET
I agree with Guliamo. I cannot sit at my computer and day trade. Certainly some have been able to do it very successfully...and i think some lose their shirts doing it. I think that fundamentally the market is unpredictable. Now, (again) i am sure some in the community will disagree and will quote chapter and verse...trot out charts and graphs...will design formulas and strategies and absolutely prove the contrary. And actually...great for them. More power to you. I just know I cannot do that.
I try to identify long term trends that make macro-sense. Choose solid companies that for some short run reason are getting smacked. And hold on. I just wish I had another 20 years on my time horizon...but, being immortal helps.
Top 1%
DowJonesDave
Aug 14 at 9:46 ET
I disagree with the time frame count. Markets just don't turn that quickly without a topping process of some sort. We're definitely in a slowing rally (speaking of the recent rally started by banks last month) and it's gotten prety darned choppy. I agree that prices are going lower, after consolidation of the rally, and a formation of some sort. If the markets just go into free fall without a process of consolidationI would be very surprised
Top 1%
guliamo
Aug 14 at 9:55 ET
The question is if the choppyness isn't a lot of a self fulfilling prophecy.. take a look at Apple (AAPL) for example.. alll the talk about recession and oil priices... guess who's back on track for $200?
And honestly, why not? nothing really changed.. MACs were always targeted at the high end demographic and there are plenty of fresh customers ready and making the move twoards this superior PC product.. the truth is iPod's simply don't have that much to do with the price of oil..
Top 1%
DowJonesDave
Aug 20 at 6:22 ET
Call me surprised