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beancounter

Some sectors showing bottoming signs

Started Oct 08 at 10:09 ET (By beancounter)

Symbols: GLD, CEF, DGP, XLE, POT, CHK, DIG

I'm specifically looking at the XLE, (DIG) as well, they opened down and came back up with some pretty decent volume thus far (grant you, its early yet.)

Does anyone see other sector ETFs (agriculture etc.) showing similar indications yet?

I'm just watching them for right now, but the long oils/energy fits my recovery investment allocation after the election, would welcome thoughts on it.

5 Comments

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guliamo

guliamo

Oct 08 at 10:35 ET

I'm puzzled at how badly CHK has done in the past couple of months and all this after a huge find in Texas. The company is currently valued at half of what it was a few months ago. i don't add to current positions by philosophy, but if i were aiming to benefit from the inevitable energy upswing (and I agree it's coming) CHK would be a good place to park.
I'm interesting in hearing more opinions on CHK.

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V4Vendetta

V4Vendetta

Oct 08 at 11:04 ET

Today's action should see a wee bump up due to the emergency rate cute; but the fundamentals are still rotten and its gonna be down, down, down from here on out.

The age of American Over-Consumption is Over and its a gonna be a long ride to the bottom.

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dosman

dosman

Oct 08 at 11:28 ET

G--thanks for the invite.

Where to begin? First, I guess admitting that in a market such as this one, stock selection based on fundamentals doesn't matter is an understatement. What we have here is unmitigated panic selling across every sector, and I suspect CHK is just another casualty. Well managed company, a leader in its space, and long-term macro-economic fundamentals in place should all point to a great investment. Problem is, the market doesn't care at this juncture.

Bottoms are always incredibly difficult to pinpoint, as I can attest to with my determined holding of POT, which I have chased down based on "fundamentals." In the AGs, for instance, many technicals pinpoint a near bottom (Fibonacci retracement shows $75 for POT), but again, who knows? Babies continue to be thrown out with the bathwater-and nobody seems to care.

In view, the only two asset classes that make sense taking a new position in this environment are gold (DGP, GLD, CEF)--less the miners (for the time being), and cash.

Broader market action doesn't quite feel like a classic capitulation yet, so I'm not quite ready to call a bottom in anything. We may be there when we see a big down day on huge volume, and close at the lows of the session. We should be close.

However, with a full-fledged global recession now upon us, I'm afraid any rally will be short lived. Past recessionary cycles are pretty clear in the message they deliver for stock holders: don't expect to make money, short of your dividends until six months before the economy turns up. We're not even close.

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MasterOFate

MasterOFate

Oct 08 at 11:31 ET

Natgas companies (like CHK) will rally if there is a colder winter than it's currently forecasted because it would push up the price of natgas. Currently there is too much of natgas in the market... I like your long position in GLD (or DGP) because gov't and private sectors are trying to reflate the dollars, bonds and stocks and hopefully housing. I believe that deflation led by collapse in loan prices must be avoided... I know dirtyharry likes the shiny yellow metal too. Even if inflation were to remain mild, gold will attract investment for because of its safety quality.

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beancounter

beancounter

Oct 08 at 2:24 ET

Dare we dream- there's big volume coming into the oils, that may lead all boats (save financials and real estate) higher....

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