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ContraryOne

Silver

Started Aug 05 at 2:45 ET (By ContraryOne)

Symbols: SLW, CNI, SLV

Why does the market always seem to overdo it. Especially lately. Sold some CNI to generate cash for SLW. Silver is back to where it was last summer.

3 Comments

Top 1%

guliamo

guliamo

Aug 05 at 2:56 ET

Interesting.. there was a lot of hype on Silver.. seems like nothing is holding up these days..

Top 98%

ramigabai

ramigabai

Aug 05 at 3:45 ET

commodities dive - same as they rose too high when US dollar was dropping.
silver will go even lower as I think oil prices will go under $100 by the end of the year.

Top 72%

arawak

arawak

Aug 05 at 4:02 ET

Yes, it's interesting how silver has retraced. Granted, it had quadrupled in value since mid 2003 so this recent pullback is proportionally limited and perhaps not unexpected.

With inflation devaluing cash at a rate of 7-9%/year I am happy to sit in SLV. The fundamentals are attractive and the potential for a sudden upside move is present for a couple of different reasons (see my other slv posts).

This is a unique metal with a rare duality -- it can be put into value-holding bullion or it can be industrially consumed. Gold, on the other hand, gets dug out of one hole and put into another, to paraphrase Buffet. We are starting to see more ETFs appear like SLV (a canadian one opened recently IIRC) which means more silver is being taken out of the supply stream.

Remember - there is less above-ground silver than gold! I know that's not a meaningful stat in of itself but it should be an eye-opener.

Anecdotal note - I bought some bullion this year and it was almost two months late to arrive. The only explanation from the mint was that "supply is tight." Why haven't prices moved, you ask? There's a pretty massive short position out there which some argue is keeping prices low. I think that's part of it but I also believe we have yet to feel a real pinch. It's impossible to know exactly how much bullion is available but it is diminishing and when the slack gets fully taken up.. *snap* goes the price.

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