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September 22 to October 2 (plus possible 10 day extension) What do you think will happen?
Started Sep 19 at 12:43 ET (By bnj646)
Symbols: JPM, FNM, ETF, SKF, SRS, FRE, BAC, MER, LEHMQ, USB, E, WAMUQ, TWM, IF, C
With the anti-short rule going into place until the first of October do you think we will see the largest rally this year in financials?
Will the shorts moving out of financials focus on stocks outside of the list and drive down other sectors??
What do you think will occur IF this rule ends in October??
Just looking for ideas for October!!!!!!
Top 1%
V4Vendetta
Sep 19 at 1:07 ET
Nope, the fundamentals are still rotten in the financial sector.
Financials are going down regardless; the only question in my mind is whether short sellers will be allowed to profit from it or not. If the shorting restriction is lifted the sector will tank faster and SKF will regain its crown as the top short ETF for '08.
Top 81%
bnj646
Sep 19 at 1:35 ET
Thanks for the input!!
Fundamentals are going to remain rotten for the end of the year.
I would agree that SKF will regain its crown going into the end of october.
Between the large number of banks reporting in the third week of october and the fed meeting at the end of October I would venture to guess the skf will have quit the move up.
However, in the interim if shorts are unable to hammer down on the financials then how will this impact the market over the next month leading up to the banks reporting?
JPM BAC C USB
Top 2%
Cosmic
Sep 19 at 2:29 ET
I got rid of all my short ETFs, it's making me too crazy!
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V4Vendetta
Sep 19 at 5:06 ET
I have no idea; we are in uncharted territory at the moment.
Given that the SEC just deep-sixed about ten thousand hedge funds that were leveraged short the financial sector we may see some massive unwinding in the near future to cover their positions. I guess it remains to be seen what will happen to all the bagholders; whether its short ETF's or otherwise.
Whats sad is about all this is that at least the short-sellers were making money this year. Now nobody is.
I can't see how that could be good for the system.
Top 2%
Cosmic
Sep 19 at 6:52 ET
It's not good for the system in the long run but I do agree it's good in the short term.
Top 2%
Cosmic
Sep 19 at 7:20 ET
For my more rambling thoughts on this situation, started by Bear Stearns, Freddie (FRE) and Fannie (FNM), and continuing with LEH, MER, WM, SKF, SRS, TWM, and other related stocks, go here: http://www.marketguru.com/opinions/short-selling-market/1002,1682
Top 2%
Cosmic
Sep 19 at 7:21 ET
Oh yes, and to answer your question, I think things will calm down for short term and then I think people will by SKF and lots of other ETFs when the prices go down to make a killing when SEC allows short selling again.