I totally beg to differ,my man. If anything Apple is a great buying opportunity. Apple came out with great results but the market was too edgy to accept the good news and the stock dropped. Let's not forget Apple went up 100% in the past year and a pull back was to be expected. What hasn't changed is that the iPhone continues to sell like hot cakes.... iPods are still 85% of the music player business... iTunes still sells 90% of all online music and....... M-A-C-I-N-T-O-S-H continues to grow it's market share. Let's not forget, MAC's are still a mere 6% of the laptop market.. everyone I know is changing over to MAC.. and that's not an iPod - it's a $1600 machine! Apple have zero debt, tons of cash and the strongest brand on earth. Furthermore they are a global company and having a field trip with weak dollar and huge exports. Go to NY my friend and stroll into the Apple store on 5th avenue... it's like little europe over there! Italians buying MAC's like crazy - this is a long term buy my friend.. no doubt.
ipod has already won the mp3 player market and can only lose market share from here. iTunes at last has serious competition from amazon and emusic. laptops have much lower margins than iphones, etc. even though it's an apple laptop, it is still competing with a dell, lenovo, etc laptop. and aapl has very limited penetration into the business market due to lack of software support so while its laptop market share might well grow, it's not like it can supplant 70% of what's out there.
Apple is a great company with zero debt, tons of cash, and the strongest brand on earth. it has just been overbought is all. current price is about where it should be. max upside for the next six months is maybe 20% at most.
AMD is, as of late, a half-assed company that has screwed up non-stop for the last year, has mountains of debt, and a brand name that is now openly scorned. It's up 30% for me in the last few weeks when the market has been having spasms all over.
Though I am greatfull for your for the AMD advice (I own some my self and hhave done well so far) I must differ on the Apple issue... Itunes might loose market share but companies are priced by revenue and earning, not percentages and that market will keep growing all over the world. iTunes 90% Market share is nice, but not entirely the point... online music sales are still less than 5% of the music sales business and ridiculous percent of all downloads (including illegal downloads) so this baby (online music) hasn't even been born yet.. revenues will grow exponentially over the next decade. Your MAC assessment that some PC software doesn't worrk on MAC is not so true anymore.. i own a MAC and have no problem with Software relevant to me and there are a lot of people like me. As MAC increases market share there will be more the margins to win... Apple will have a lot to say in the future of home entertainment and your future TV could be a MAC - with your future content (TV, movies, music) bought off iTunes that's running on Channel one of your TV. So do tell.. who can compete with Apple in this Hardware / software game.. i don't see anyone moving into this and Amazon aren't going to manufacture TV's so fast. I'll take a 20% gain over the next 6 months.. but looking 10 years forward with this baby... :)
iTunes won the way they did because they had a playing field that was *hugely* tilted in their favor.. nobody else had a music store with their selection and SURPRISE the product of their music store would only work on their admittedly awesome hardware. Now the game is changing.. they are being forced to ditch DRM by the likes of Amazon which has a far larger online consumer base. Reiterating- apple was forced to make a major change to their model (at a profit loss) in the face of competition.
So maybe their laptops have more software available now and more to come, but not that many in the Blackberry / Microsoft world really sees a Mac as a business class option. And nobody cares about "cool" in the business world. If apple wants to compete in the business world they will have to lower their prices and get into the dog-eat-dog of < 1% margins on hardware. I can't imagine anyone sitting down at a budgeting meeting going "oh, the ibooks are $160 more per unit, but, hey it's apple!" not much traction on that front. Kids and hipsters have iPhones, men spend more time on their blackberries than on their wives.
All this isn't really the point, however. We are here to talk about stock price and, in the next six months or year, there is no reason to believe this puppy is going anywhere near 200 again. That would require a 53% rally which is a tough request for a company of their size and their p/e in a market that is increasingly turning ugly.
Face it, my friend.. you like this company and believe in them in a personal way. That's not good investing in my opinion. They have treated you well but are now down 35% from their high.
aapl will rise again, but, for now, let them take their lumps on their own while we share profits in other areas. There should be no such thing as loyalty to a stock in trading.
Top 1%
guliamo
Feb 03 at 4:12 ET
I totally beg to differ,my man.
If anything Apple is a great buying opportunity. Apple came out with great results but the market was too edgy to accept the good news and the stock dropped. Let's not forget Apple went up 100% in the past year and a pull back was to be expected. What hasn't changed is that the iPhone continues to sell like hot cakes.... iPods are still 85% of the music player business... iTunes still sells 90% of all online music and....... M-A-C-I-N-T-O-S-H continues to grow it's market share.
Let's not forget, MAC's are still a mere 6% of the laptop market.. everyone I know is changing over to MAC.. and that's not an iPod - it's a $1600 machine!
Apple have zero debt, tons of cash and the strongest brand on earth. Furthermore they are a global company and having a field trip with weak dollar and huge exports.
Go to NY my friend and stroll into the Apple store on 5th avenue... it's like little europe over there! Italians buying MAC's like crazy - this is a long term buy my friend.. no doubt.
Top 3%
arawak
Feb 03 at 11:53 ET
ipod has already won the mp3 player market and can only lose market share from here. iTunes at last has serious competition from amazon and emusic. laptops have much lower margins than iphones, etc. even though it's an apple laptop, it is still competing with a dell, lenovo, etc laptop. and aapl has very limited penetration into the business market due to lack of software support so while its laptop market share might well grow, it's not like it can supplant 70% of what's out there.
Apple is a great company with zero debt, tons of cash, and the strongest brand on earth. it has just been overbought is all. current price is about where it should be. max upside for the next six months is maybe 20% at most.
AMD is, as of late, a half-assed company that has screwed up non-stop for the last year, has mountains of debt, and a brand name that is now openly scorned. It's up 30% for me in the last few weeks when the market has been having spasms all over.
Top 1%
guliamo
Feb 03 at 12:25 ET
Though I am greatfull for your for the AMD advice (I own some my self and hhave done well so far) I must differ on the Apple issue... Itunes might loose market share but companies are priced by revenue and earning, not percentages and that market will keep growing all over the world. iTunes 90% Market share is nice, but not entirely the point... online music sales are still less than 5% of the music sales business and ridiculous percent of all downloads (including illegal downloads) so this baby (online music) hasn't even been born yet.. revenues will grow exponentially over the next decade.
Your MAC assessment that some PC software doesn't worrk on MAC is not so true anymore.. i own a MAC and have no problem with Software relevant to me and there are a lot of people like me. As MAC increases market share there will be more the margins to win... Apple will have a lot to say in the future of home entertainment and your future TV could be a MAC - with your future content (TV, movies, music) bought off iTunes that's running on Channel one of your TV.
So do tell.. who can compete with Apple in this Hardware / software game.. i don't see anyone moving into this and Amazon aren't going to manufacture TV's so fast.
I'll take a 20% gain over the next 6 months.. but looking 10 years forward with this baby... :)
Top 3%
arawak
Feb 04 at 8:13 ET
iTunes won the way they did because they had a playing field that was *hugely* tilted in their favor.. nobody else had a music store with their selection and SURPRISE the product of their music store would only work on their admittedly awesome hardware. Now the game is changing.. they are being forced to ditch DRM by the likes of Amazon which has a far larger online consumer base. Reiterating- apple was forced to make a major change to their model (at a profit loss) in the face of competition.
So maybe their laptops have more software available now and more to come, but not that many in the Blackberry / Microsoft world really sees a Mac as a business class option. And nobody cares about "cool" in the business world. If apple wants to compete in the business world they will have to lower their prices and get into the dog-eat-dog of < 1% margins on hardware. I can't imagine anyone sitting down at a budgeting meeting going "oh, the ibooks are $160 more per unit, but, hey it's apple!" not much traction on that front. Kids and hipsters have iPhones, men spend more time on their blackberries than on their wives.
All this isn't really the point, however. We are here to talk about stock price and, in the next six months or year, there is no reason to believe this puppy is going anywhere near 200 again. That would require a 53% rally which is a tough request for a company of their size and their p/e in a market that is increasingly turning ugly.
Face it, my friend.. you like this company and believe in them in a personal way. That's not good investing in my opinion. They have treated you well but are now down 35% from their high.
aapl will rise again, but, for now, let them take their lumps on their own while we share profits in other areas. There should be no such thing as loyalty to a stock in trading.
Top 1%
shlomi
Feb 05 at 8:18 ET
arawak, what's your saying regarding GOOG?
I would appreciate your input