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What are the odds of a rate cut this afternoon or this week? I'd think we'd see a pretty major (500+ points), albeit fleeting, rally as a result which would ultimately set us up for another leg down... What are the probabilities here? Not sure whether to be short or long on the UYG or anywhere else for that matter.... but if it can just get a little cheaper 15's, I'd start buying in....
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ROLEX18K
Sep 16 at 1:48 ET
It doesn't matter what Fed does today,it is how market will react.
If market wants to go up/down as you say 500 points it will do it,Fed will be only as a pretext to the move,as excuse.
I am bearish,very bearish long term,but I think some traders are short the market and already made a lot of money ( I made yesterday 20,000$ on 12 mini Dow shorts,covered,could make 30,000$ if would wait till today's open ) and are short today as well.So the question is,which shark is bigger,even if shorts are megalodon sharks,the army of white sharks can feed on it too.I think at such volatility big move will happen today,of course,and my insticts smell blood for the shorts as they become too fat,too fast.
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arawak
Sep 16 at 1:48 ET
I think a rate is likely, probably .25 - .5 and while it might result in a little rally it is not going to change the ugly reality out there.
Things are horrible and getting worse. If AIG folds on itself... I don't even know what to write. PMs are crashing downward due to, I believe, margin calls / leverage. The entire global financial system is re-engineering itself in the most painful fashion.
I am seriously considering liquidating all my non-core position including AMD if there is any movement to the upside. I simply do not see how things can improve to the upside in the next 6 - 12 months. Maybe even longer. We could be in a recessionary state for years. One doesn't want to be alarmist but when smoke comes pouring in under the door...
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beancounter
Sep 16 at 2:06 ET
Arawak - that's a good move on your part for your real portfolio - capital preservation is what allows you to buy real value after this washout is over. I'm largely cash with a little GLD and a little bit short bonds (TBT). And it wouldn't matter to me if the dow went up 2000 points b/c I know that the next leg is down with substantial distribution,that will take us below 10K and that's when real selling would start.
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Gurughantal
Sep 16 at 2:19 ET
I doubt Fed will cut any rate. i think they will leave it unchanged because of inflation. let's see.
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Stormethia
Sep 16 at 4:01 ET
I don't think the feds will cut the rate again. The election is too close and they want to leave this mess for the new guy to try to fix or more likely take the blame. Plus there is that inflation thing my Dad is always talking about.