My Thought For Tomorrows Trade As WWW.STOCKTOCK.COM celebrates 1000 post!
Started Jul 01 2009 at 9:32PM (EST) (By korenidan87)
Hey guys,
First of all it’s my honor to give you the 1000th post… stocktock has been such a great community for me and for everyone I know, and it’s great to be here about a year later with 1000 posts. I want to thank both Craig and Scott for letting me blog here and to thank you guys for helping me become a better trader with the questions and feedback you provide.
Lets get to business:
I won’t have a video today but I’m writing a small pragraph about what happend today. We got a fakeout above the 92.80 level early in the morning and then we moved lower to form a very nice topping reversal candle. The volume wasn’t strong as we get closer to july 4th but the action was relatively bearish. The market SPY reached the high of 93.22 which was a perfect fakeout as the left shoulder of the H&S’s high is at 93.22 as well, that makes the H&S daily symmetrical, and gives the bears more reason to shove this market down tomorrow. I called the fakeout on stocktock early on as I saw the dollar strengthen somewhat and oil plummet, I also said financials did not really participate or make new highs and so a chance for a fakeout was still there. I still am short AMZN which made a new low, and AAPL which seems to be slightly stronger. I think shorting AMZN to 78-79 level looks good to say the least.. and then maybe a break down of the H&S daily on its chart could push it down to new short term lows. AAPL can fall but it has ascending support by taking a line from the two lows in may and in april around the 138.20 level. That said, we are not full blown bears yet… I am positioned bearish into tomorrow but the action might not come to furuition because its the day before july 4th, and the market will have low volume and could get propped up by the government. The key level to watch for a break to the downside is 91.40, where’as any break above 93.20 will be very bullish, or any close above 92.80 is bullish as well. We have a lot , a lot of data coming out tomorrow so maybe there will be some more volume than today.. rememeber we’ll find out about the 10yr auction and 30 yr stats tomorrow, as well as jobs report.
First of all it’s my honor to give you the 1000th post… stocktock has been such a great community for me and for everyone I know, and it’s great to be here about a year later with 1000 posts. I want to thank both Craig and Scott for letting me blog here and to thank you guys for helping me become a better trader with the questions and feedback you provide.
Lets get to business:
I won’t have a video today but I’m writing a small pragraph about what happend today. We got a fakeout above the 92.80 level early in the morning and then we moved lower to form a very nice topping reversal candle. The volume wasn’t strong as we get closer to july 4th but the action was relatively bearish. The market SPY reached the high of 93.22 which was a perfect fakeout as the left shoulder of the H&S’s high is at 93.22 as well, that makes the H&S daily symmetrical, and gives the bears more reason to shove this market down tomorrow. I called the fakeout on stocktock early on as I saw the dollar strengthen somewhat and oil plummet, I also said financials did not really participate or make new highs and so a chance for a fakeout was still there. I still am short AMZN which made a new low, and AAPL which seems to be slightly stronger. I think shorting AMZN to 78-79 level looks good to say the least.. and then maybe a break down of the H&S daily on its chart could push it down to new short term lows. AAPL can fall but it has ascending support by taking a line from the two lows in may and in april around the 138.20 level. That said, we are not full blown bears yet… I am positioned bearish into tomorrow but the action might not come to furuition because its the day before july 4th, and the market will have low volume and could get propped up by the government. The key level to watch for a break to the downside is 91.40, where’as any break above 93.20 will be very bullish, or any close above 92.80 is bullish as well. We have a lot , a lot of data coming out tomorrow so maybe there will be some more volume than today.. rememeber we’ll find out about the 10yr auction and 30 yr stats tomorrow, as well as jobs report.
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3 Comments
Top 1%
lobots10
Jul 02 2009 at 3:51AM (EST)
I agree, in fact this market would have gone bearish long ago if it weren't for "propping" from the government...question is of course what will happen when the summer is over and "propping" no longer becomes feasible...well, the gov hopes that the recovery will be full blown, in that case they could claim a resounding success on the other hand...
action in late September/early October should be wild on volatility
Near term I think we are going down, not by a lot perhaps, but down--oil price is the driver--can it stay above 70 or not in the near term...I think not
Top 1%
beancounter
Jul 02 2009 at 7:29AM (EST)
Watch when I buy SCO, when I do, you can expect oil to rise, and when I bail, oil will fall - this thing has been kicking my @#$ forseveral weeks, but I do thiink oil into the low 60s is probable, if only temporarily.
Top 2%
KanGuru
Jul 02 2009 at 10:58AM (EST)
Idan, I've been following your posts for about 3 weeks now and you actually nail market movement almost every day.
I'm going to start calling the oracle from MG.
Thanks and keep up the good work.