im still bullish

I was born bullish, but agree all the same..

Agreed there are some great bargains, some stock is already creeping up.

One thing I'd recommend for investment consideration AND a good 4th of July celebration, - COW (for grillin'! ) and BOOM (fireworks, get it?) and then a little DEO, and BUD, and if you're lucky, you might need FHCO, and then after a little MO to round out the weekend.....

Have a great 4th y'all.

I am bullish till 2:30 PM I will take short position at EOD around 912 SPX.

We will see mini crash on Monday to 880-875 levels. that will decide if we have confirmed trend change or we are still going to make new highs.

Good luck everyone.

yesterday i was bullish too but missed the boat. i thought a correction might take place, so i have been aggressively dollar cost averaging my entry point. this means ive been manipulating my cost basis lower. it has worked well. on a huge down day im actually slightly up!

I'm waiting for that 875-880 level too. There may end up being some sideways action / consolidation there. Whichever way the market moves from there, I believe will determine the general direction for awhile.

Volume is coming in big time so far.

Close below 900 changed a lot of thing. we are heading to 875-880 level.

Agreed - but I thought we were heading there whether we closed above 900 or not...... That's going to be the major pivot area......

I don't see how you can be bullish at all.. we will probably not go to new lows... but i think a move to around 740-850 on the SPX.. is the likely outcome of this H&S on the daily... once the 875-880 level breaks..

I tend to think we will break down as well, but there are many Eilliot Wave people there that say there is one more final leg up in the market - a push to 989. I am not an EW guy so I really don't know, but if enough people watch it so that alone could influence the markets.....

well nope.. there's nothing that dictates another leg up... in EW... there hasn't really been any sub-waves this move higher... you sorta have to assume that this whole move higher is just one bigger wave...

I'm in no position to argue EW. If I never heard of it, my opinion would be there is going to be consolidation at 875-880, followed by a hard break down to 810-820.

That's my view... i think we might dip a little lower monday.. reverse... then hit 880 and form some upward movement only to be reversed at a max of 923ish.. and then down we go to at least 850.. if not 815.. if not 740 if not 660 if not 580 if not 550

its a trading market. still undecided and not trending yet. that leads me to believe todays fall was just putting spring in the north coil...

According to my charts, what I see is a retest of 880-875 if we break that the next support is around 840-830 area. from there we will get one more leg up to 880-875 and from that straight down to 780-770 area.

I am not going to make bold call but I don't see new lows before Sept/Oct of this yr.

Most investors who are bearish are expecting another crash but it won't happen. For another crash we need another bubble. I think we have a debt/deficit bubble coming but it's not going to bust this yr. it will take at least 1-2yrs to bust.

Till than we are going to experience "W" trend. up-down-up-down kind of chart.

I guess it all depends on what you define as "crash" and "bubble"...... To me, a 3 month run up of 40% in the general market is at least a mini-bubble of sorts, especially in light of the fundamentals. If there had been growth, increased employment, etc, the argument could be made that at least some of the run up is fairly supported. However, we've seen great declines among very important metrics, WHILE the market ran up 40%. It seems to me the market should have been declining during this period, not advancing. Consequently, I'm of the opinion that the 40% run up is a lot of hot air since the earnings aren't there to support it. When earnings start coming out for Q2, I believe this will become obvious to naysayers.....

And on whether or not a possible coming decline is a crash, I suppose that's open to interpretation as well. If we simply retest March 9 lows is that a "crash"? Or is it not a crash since we've already been at that level? If we reach March 9 lows in one week vs. 4 months, is one scenario a crash while the other is not?

And now it appears that we're zeroing in on the 875-880 range......

move towards 90.50 first then a push lower..

you guys called it. what can i say...

Agree with Korenidan87, a little pop, then south.

SPX cash shouldn't violate 906/908 area. As far as we are below that on SPX we are heading to 870-868 area.

Anybody else seeing a head and shoulders reversal forming in the weekly chart for SPX or DJIA?

If it is...that would mean a drop back to about 800 (SPX) or 8000 (DJIA). If there's a reversal there, it could be a very, VERY nice ride back up.

Theory is that the H&S reversal breakout will match the same distance covered from the head to the neckline...which would take things back up around 12,000 on the DJIA!

If the volumes come back in or they really start to dry out on the way down, as we get to those levels, imo, yeah, we could turn back around. I'm just trying to be "right" onthis leg of move down, unlike the last one. :-)

I've found that using MACD's histogram on SPY, used in conjuction with slow stochastics, gives a good since of market direction with only a one day lag.

DH - ditto here. (My defaults include RSI and Acc/Dis as well...for "flavor", if you will!)

Divergence signals on the MACD and SloSto have been spot-on in most time frames - weekly, daily, and 60-min.

im parking in gold and going back to the overnight special hop...

On the IWM we're just into the high of the day of the May 13th low but we don't appear to have the volume to close inside it. If we do, we'll drop another 2-3% on the Russell 2k. Might take a day or two. (IWM's proxy.) But man, the Nas is leading it down. wow...

Bond auctions will be a spectator sport this week....

Not sure why I couldn't write english in my last message, but I guess it was understood all the same.

Anyway.....here we are, right at SPX 880

I am going long now at close.

Going long here will probably work, but I'm not going long - yet. I need to wait for my indicators to show some reversal and they haven't yet. I may miss the best entry day but I'd rather have at least some confirmation of a reversal.

I just initiated partial long and I will add more on the dip.

Gurughantal - Try following the MACD histogram on SPY. When I see it reversing course, I use that as a primary directional indicator (with some exceptions such as a longer term trending MACD, major common technical formations, etc).

I'd be curious to see if you find it useful.

Thanks DH,

I am using MACD with other indicators since I started leaning TA. I agree MACD on 5/15min and 1hr/daily chart is very important.

:-) Cheers!!