Everyone.. take the rest of the day off :)
Started Sep 19 at 9:36 ET (By guliamo)
Symbols: AMGN, PG, JBL, SYY, JNJ, AFL, CL, BAC, SBUX, RAIL, FXP, PAL, BLK, CALM, UST, USU, CHD, UA, YHOO, KO, RSX, SKF, TEVA, FED, TGT, WMT, FTEK, ED, USB, GILD, COST, GTOP
Wow.
In my years of investing I've never seen such a thing..
Is there any stock in red?
And thank you dear SEC, for banning shorting.. about 10 trillion dollars late, but still.
Top 1%
beancounter
Sep 19 at 9:53 ET
I don't know about you guys, but I'm having a b**tch of a time getting limit orders placed.. Just lost 6 points on RSX b/c the orders aren't executing. (At Schwab).
Thanks for the heads up on UA by the way, you saved me 3 points.
Top 25%
dgryder
Sep 19 at 9:54 ET
I do not think that this is going to last. This is crazy.
Top 1%
guliamo
Sep 19 at 10:00 ET
Yeah, I think UA is a bit premature.. no is not a good time for them to launch new product lines..
DG,
This isn't crazy - it's long over due as far as i'm concerned. Cisco is NOT worth 35% less than it was a year ago..
I'm kicking myself for not buying BAC!
Top 2%
andyf613
Sep 19 at 10:05 ET
SKF is at 93 and its a BUY!
I just lost a ton on SKF today - but will def make it back in next 2 weeks.
The fed is trying to save the banks now and instead letting hedge funds blow up since they wont be able to cover their short poistions which at the end of the day will also effect the banks big time since they have huge counterparty risk with the hedge funds. So where does that exactly leave us Mr. Bernanke
Top 1%
Wonko42
Sep 19 at 11:00 ET
Lol, this is really "peak insanity" as some great blogger has posted. I find it very enlightening how quickly all the financials gave their opening gains back.
Dear Feds: You can manipulate PRICE, but you cannot manipulate VALUE.
Sold almost all my longs (that my systems bought frightening amounts of the last 2 days) today, and added to Morgan Stanley and China shorts via options and FXP.
Top 1%
beancounter
Sep 19 at 12:10 ET
I was looking at FXP - it is down HARD today....
Is this bailout fund going to address all the derivative swaps, etc too? or JUST the mortgages themselves?
Top 2%
Cosmic
Sep 19 at 3:42 ET
AMGN, AFL, BLK, CHD, CL, COST, ED, FTEK, GILD (one of your favs), GTOP, JBL, JNJ, PAL, PG, RAIL, SBUX, SYY, TEVA, TGT, USB, UST, USU, WMT, YHOO are all down today... :P
I can win for losing... lol
Top 2%
Cosmic
Sep 19 at 3:55 ET
I mean't I can't win for losing. I think I've been adjusting my portfolio to try to benefit from the ways things have been and well, today was bad - especially for my shorts -which I have now eliminated. I was just learning about these short ETFs too. I'm beginning to think that I picked an interesting time to start some short term trading...
Top 2%
Cosmic
Sep 19 at 3:56 ET
andy-
Why do you think USB went down today when the banks went up?
Top 1%
CountdeMonet
Sep 19 at 4:09 ET
The government needs to realize that markets are like jello. The tighter you squeeze, the more slips through your fingers i.e. in the end things will only get worse.
Then again, don't believe me. Those who didn't believe my warnings from before, I must surely be wrong this time. Right? Just keep repeating to yourself "The market is not a ponzi scheme, the market is not a ponzi scheme, ...".
Top 1%
CountdeMonet
Sep 19 at 4:17 ET
Cosmic, this was purely a short covering rally. Smart money used the spike high to sell into even for those stocks that have been performing. Weak shorts may continue to cover but stocks like JNJ have probably hit their high as of today.
Top 1%
V4Vendetta
Sep 19 at 5:18 ET
guilamo,
Short-selling is integral to the functioning of a healthy market.
Take these examples from the Wikipedia article on short-selling:
* a farmer who has just planted his wheat wants to lock in the price at which he can sell after the harvest. He would take a short position in wheat futures.
* a market maker in corporate bonds is constantly trading bonds when clients want to buy or sell. This can create substantial bond positions. The largest risk is that interest rates overall move. The trader can hedge this risk by selling government bonds short against his long positions in corporate bonds. In this way, the risk that remains is credit risk of the corporate bonds.
* an options trader may short shares in order to remain delta neutral so that he is not exposed to risk from price movements in the stocks that underlie his options
What is wrong with any of that?
The financials are getting hammered because they made bad business decisions. Just like Enron. And the telcoms and dot-bomb's. Don't blame the short-sellers for their mistakes. They are doing the market a service by pulling equity out of them and putting it somewhere better.
What the SEC is doing is sacrificing the integrity of the markets in order to *possibly* slow a decline in the share price of the financial sector. This will do nothing to change the solvency of these institutions and everything to destroy confidence in US markets.
Top 1%
guliamo
Sep 19 at 5:56 ET
Hi V,
I'm not blaming shorters, I'm blaming the government.
* A farmer doesn't know anything about shorting, it's all insurance premiums to him and it should be insurance companies paying him out if the rain doesn't fall.
* As for the bonds dealer and interest rates shifting, that's exactly my point - when the market goes down, the country isn't doing well, and people won't be doing well - that's fair enough.. But macro economic conditions aren't a business transaction, they are a matter of national concern and should be dealt with on that level, cutting the budget, creating jobs or whatever measures need to be taken. Leaving it up to the farmer to short market futures is not the way and option traders - what is that? people trading on what stock prices might be.. it's not real, but money is made.
I support allowing these tools (including option trading) to be used under very tight regulation and in specific cases only.
The problem with these financial shenanigans is that they distort the actual amount of money in the market.
When you buy 1 Apple share - you've committed $140 to grow with the company and the most you can loose is $140. when you start leveraging those dollars and buying 10 times the amount of stock options on margin is when trouble begins, that money doesn't exists. There is no value behind it.. it's a musical chairs game and it's the hard working middle class worker that's always left standing.
All that man knows is that Apple makes great computers that he likes and the company should do well.. how can we expect him to be aware of all the strategies and games going on manipulating the stock's price to be at the right price at the right date so the Lehman Brothers broker gets his client rich - those dollars they gain belong to that working man who invested in the American economy and it's future.
Only %1 of investors use shorting.. so how is CALM 90% short? It's because very few people are doing very conspicuous deals that have nothing to do with a companies performance or real value.
Top 5%
ContraryOne
Sep 19 at 6:18 ET
Well said...guliamo. Just one other thing. Yes...shorting does distort the market... short term. But when Apple does well. When it meets the needs of the consumer and their sales and profits rise...buyers look at a price that has been temporarily been driven down by the shorts...and they buy. The price goes up..the shorts get hurt... and some real people get a chance to buy a blue chip at a bargain. Hopefully, the honest and disciplined investor...not trader, comes out ahead.
Top 1%
V4Vendetta
Sep 19 at 6:27 ET
Uh, guys, short-selling *reduces* market volatility and provides liquidity.
The market would be much, much more 'distorted' (whatever that means) without it.
Top 2%
Cosmic
Sep 19 at 7:42 ET
Count,
So you think that tomorrow won't be this green? Is that what you are saying?
Top 4%
DOMINATION
Sep 19 at 11:46 ET
I lost on WMT, KO, and PG today.
Top 2%
Cosmic
Sep 20 at 4:17 ET
I meant Monday obviously not today as in Saturday. I guess I'm glad I know what day it is...
Anybody had a look at this new fund, PBTQ?
http://biz.yahoo.com/iw/080916/0433984.html
Top 1%
DowJonesDave
Sep 20 at 7:02 ET
Without short sellers there won't be much risk of decline. Nor will there be short covering rallies. Ater the rally poops out, where's the bottom going to come from without short sellers?
Top 1%
DowJonesDave
Sep 20 at 7:04 ET
Pretty high powered string here, mostly 1st-4th percentile gurus
Top 1%
DowJonesDave
Sep 20 at 7:09 ET
Really pisses me off these guys (you know: THEM) wreck the economy and blame it on Oil speculators and short sellers.
Oil skyrocketed because of the war, and banks tanked due to FED policies.
Top 5%
ContraryOne
Sep 20 at 9:41 ET
This Wall Street Journal article pretty much blows up the "speculator" argument. Unfortunately, the politicians need a scapegoat and they are too effective at propagating erroneous information. Then there is Bill O'Reilly...he is right about a lot of stuff (in my opinion) but really needs to lighten up when it comes to economics. He is just plaiin out of his depth
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB122143397998234079.html
BTW...can you guys without an online subscription access this link. If not...I am sorry for putting so many up. Obviously...lots of great information at wsj online
Top 5%
ContraryOne
Sep 20 at 9:50 ET
A paragraph from Kim Strassel's morning opinion piece in the WSJ...pretty much sums up how we got here.
It begins and ends with government. He explains it was the Federal Reserve that eased interest rates, which led to easy money and inspired banks and mortgage firms to borrow more and take riskier bets. He notes it was politicians who created beasts like Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, pressured them to provide more credit to subprime borrowers, passed legislation allowing them to ramp up their liabilities, and guaranteed their mistakes. Easy-money Fed policy led to a weak dollar and today's inflated cost of groceries and gas. "This isn't a free market collapse," he says. "Most of this was caused by mismanagement of government."
Top 1%
CountdeMonet
Sep 20 at 1:47 ET
Cosmic, all I know is that we're still in a bear market but we may get a decent rally out of it. You will know the top is in again once they start making crazy comments like we're heading for the highs again if not all time highs. Simply listen to your own sentiments. When you think "geez this is great I'm going to make lots of money" sell it. When you think "wow I can't take this anymore I have to sell" buy it. It's pretty much as simple as that and in this market you need to keep it simple and keep your size small. When volatility is up you only need small size and when volatility is down you need bigger size.
We've moved into a period where you can look to buy dips and sell rips instead of the other way around. This may last one month or 6 months or 1 year but ultimately the lows aren't in yet. Tread/trade carefully.