don't rain on the POT parade?
Started Jun 17 at 11:14 ET (By guliamo)
I don't want to spoil everyones party and I used to own potash myself until a few weeks ago. I would like to share my rational for selling.
potash isn't a new and emerging company.
Potash isn't a software company.
Potash isn't a biotech..
Potash is a $74 billion company that mixes fertilizers and industrial acids, puts them in sacks and sells to farmers around the world.
It's a great business, it's a great company with excellent financials and what appears to be excellent management.
But hold your horses everyone (literally.. hehe).. no company of this nature can justify a 190% gain in a year. This isn't a small cap hidden gem..
So fertilizer prices my be sky high, but at a P/E of 52.. Potash could take a serious dive, Be advised..
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verushka1
Jun 17 at 11:49 ET
Wrong. WHy does a co.have to be "emerging,biotech, software in order to fit into a good investment paradigm?
You are wrong wrong wrong. Pot does not mix fertilizers and put it in bags. POT is a mining company. Tey mine the mineral POTASH. THere are very few places in the world where POTASH is located. It takesabout 5 years to bring a new Potash mine on line and millions and millions of dollars.
The company POTASH is one of the largest POTASH miners in the world. THere is an increased need in agricultre in the world for an increase demand for fertilizer.
POTASH like oil is a commodity. Do you think the world will be needing less oil? People need to eat before they can drive.
The price of POT is being driven by the worlds increased demand for food because of increased population and because millions more people have entered the middle class.And now instead of eating just one meal a day are now eating two meals a day, so there is an increased demand for food.
True, food is not a software co, emerging market or a software co. Who ever said that those were the only good things to invest in.
Sorry, you made a big mistake.
Top 1%
guliamo
Jun 18 at 2:42 ET
Thanks for educating me on the subject verushka but I think my point might have been missed..
I'm not arguing that demand for food isn't on the rise. I'm also not arguing that this Potash ingredient is very rare or hard to find. My argument is that this kind of labor / production intensive industry can't reasonably explode by 200% a year. This is where the biotech/software analogy comes in.. software companies can safely grow at such a pace because they sell knowledge, not material. Your point, that there is an increase in demand supporting such stock value growth would have to be reconciled in the companies P/E.. but a P/E of 50 doesn't support in my mind this growth in demand. My contention therefor is that profitability for this company needs to double to support such a value for the company and though the long term specs are very positive, a pull down in price is to be expected.
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pilgrimoil
Jun 18 at 1:44 ET
What do you think about MOS?
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guliamo
Jun 19 at 6:26 ET
Both companies look quite similar on the fundamentals.. I'm a bit worried at MOS's huge spike in earnings (1,134%) compared to a more "reasonable" 185% growth at POT in that same category.
A position comprised of the two would probably make the most sense, but I'm partial to Potash.
What do you think, verushka?
Top 97%
ramigabai
Aug 11 at 11:41 ET
seems like you were right guliamo!! POT dropped 40%. Do you think it is a buying opportunity at $160?
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guliamo
Aug 11 at 12:58 ET
Thank you my man, much obliged..
I suppose Potash will snap back up a bit, but couldn't say how things will pan out in the long term.
I think investors have moved on to the next new hit - and that's the airline industry if you ask me..
Potash is back at a reasonable P/E of 24 but still 100% up in the last 52 weeks.
I think there are plenty of other fish in the sea and personally my romance with fertilizers is over.. I made some dinero and moving on.
Cheers.
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Cosmic
Sep 08 at 3:11 ET
I am looking for the bottom of this run to buy some more for the long run. I think POT still has some long term investing value. thoughts?
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guliamo
Sep 08 at 4:52 ET
I don't see this sector being very attractive in the near future, certainly not with current market mayhem. Agriculture & Chemicals correlates with raw materials, I think picking up some raw materials stocks would serve you better. BHP or BTU come to mind, BHP is probably better for it's diversification and foreign currency income.
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dirtyharry
Sep 10 at 10:54 ET
People interested in POT may be also interested in CF (another fertilizer company with a better P/E) and MOO, an agricultural ETF. I would wait for CF to hit $100 and MOO to hit $40.25. I think both are attractively priced right here, but I also thing the market as a whole is going to drop a bit. Get that out of the way first and maybe pick these two up at bottom.
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Cosmic
Sep 12 at 9:07 ET
Thanks!