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arawak

chips and dip

Started May 05 at 6:18 ET (By arawak)

Symbols: CEO, INTC, ATI, IBM, AMD

I have posted on AMD before but wanted to sum up my thoughts. In the interest of full disclosure I am cost-averaged in AMD at 6.11

Let's get the obvious out of the way -- AMD is no poster child for how to run a company. Their technology roadmap is littered with "Road Closed," "Detour," and "Expect Delays" signs. Having bested Intel with the initial release of the Opteron chip, they have steadily lost market share ever since. The Phenom desktop processor is a mild disappointment and the new wave of Opterons are late to the party and performing sub-par compared to Intel's chips. Their acquisition of ATI was a disaster in that they overpaid by billions and had to subsequently record write-downs of their new graphics division.

The market has pummeled the stock and then some.

At first glance it seems counterintuitive to buy a company that has disappointed at every turn. Indeed it goes without saying that only growth, risk-tolerant investors should buy into AMD. There are, however, arguments in favor of an AMD buy at this price level:

- the stock price appears to have comfortably bottomed (discounting today's bump) at around $6.00. While the company has yet to return to profitability (a promise of the CEO for Q3), it is trading barely above its book value. It wouldn't take much in the way of good news to push AMD higher whereas INTC has traded in the same range for five years despite excellent earnings.

- The errors of the past couple quarters are behind AMD and now that it has its quad core chips in mass production it can focus on cranking clock speeds and other improvements that will help it compete with Intel.

- Even though INTC can outspend AMD by practically any margin, AMD has some key partnerships that help offset its limited purse. R&D relationships with IBM and Sun could well bear fruit down the road particularly in the area of chip fundamentals (gate technology and the like).

- Despite the recent round of screw-ups, it's important to recognize how far AMD has come. Not that long ago AMD chips were only for desktop computers and were considered cheapo alternatives at that. Dell just announced a range of new servers based on quad-core Opteron chips. Sun selected AMD for its x86 server platform. The ATI merger will allow AMD to truly compete with NVIDA and Intel in the ever-more-important graphics arena.

In short - though AMD has erred egregiously, it is unlikely to head further south. There is reason to believe that it could regain its footing, and, if it does, the rise above $6 will translate into some healthy percentages.

5 Comments

Top 4%

Kohalza

Kohalza

May 06 at 3:03 ET

I've been sitting patiently on my AMD stocks, bought at around $6 for those exact reasons. Although the company has made more than its share of mistakes, It will only take one good play for the share to soar.

Top 1%

guliamo

guliamo

May 06 at 10:44 ET

Your analysis strengthens my faith in AMD which I already hold. I'm wondering though: Since the processor market is comprised of AMD and INTC alone, would it not make sense to split that position into a 50-50 holding. The one thing that has remained beyond debate is that the global demand for processors will keep rising. If we assume this demand will be supplied by either player, wouldn't a 50-50 position be ideal?

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arawak

arawak

May 06 at 11:04 ET

One could split their position but that would endorse an overall buy into processors which I think is not strongly warranted. AMD has good upside potential (and corresponding risk) whereas Intel, like Cisco, seems destined to wander around in the same range. INTC's market cap is 20x that of AMD's. It will take a lot of good news and capital movement to budge a ticker that big.

Quite honestly while the tech sector is destined to grow in the future, I view an AMD buy as more of a one-off play thanks to its volatility and recent punishment.

I neglected to mention in my analysis above the "lottery ticket" of AMD's anti-trust suit against Intel. If there is even a hint of it playing out in AMD's favor the stock will rocket. At that point I would most likely sell and move on.

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arawak

arawak

May 06 at 5:40 ET

I feel a bit prescient with today's 9% jump. :)

Top 1%

blacktuna

blacktuna

May 11 at 9:43 ET

There is no doubt, u da man arawak!
AMD looks like the only way is up.. for sure..

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