CAN WE HAVE A BLACK MONDAY AGAIN ON SEPTEMBER 22 ?

A small fall with no news? Perhaps you need to get a new news service. I've been hammered with stories for months on this unfolding problem in the mortgage markets. "No news" has not been an issue I've run into. I'm in the real estate industry and even my average clients are somewhat informed about what's going on. If people that have nothing to do with my industry can tell me what they've heard, it seems like there has been plenty of news and discussion about what's going on.

Also your assertion that what the government is doing is some kind of a "temporary" rescue is far-fetched. Not only has the government promised for years to act as a backstop to Fannie and Freddie, not only did they actually perform their duties as a backstop, not only did they extend their backstop to other companies (rightly or wrongly), but they have promised to continue doing it. It seems to me that none of the actions or claims of government suggest that there is anything "temporary" about the their plans to backstop these companies (at the cost of rampant inflation). I'm not passing judgment on whether it's right or wrong for them to do it. I'm just saying your claims that there has been no news and this is a temporary situation seem completely at odds with the facts. It's hard to accept your comparison to 1987 when your comparitive claims aren't based in reality.

The reckoning has been postponed, largely due to the elimination of short selling many banks. Of course short sellers will be looking at other sectors and unprotected banks, but as a short seller, I'm not shorting anything while the banks rally. This was a set-up. CNBC was talking the market down as hard as i've ever seen (re: one of my posts last week) and the fed let Lehman fall to set up the fear cycle, then out come the bailouts...gee all the bad paper's being dumped on the taxpayers...This rally is going to last into october I'll bet.

They're going to crash it but not quite yet. Maybe due to the election, I don't know. I just know better than to trade against a freight train!

OIl's creeping up again and inventories fell sharply last week so I'm in JA solar (risk is exposure to lehman paper but I think it's sold off enough on that news.

ASlso Bought GE on rumor it's to be added to short ban.

I agree this was a set-up.....and a well timed one too. I called the market bottom correctly on Wed., after the market closed, and reversed all of my positions to long on Thursday morning at the open. I think it seemed like too much of coincidence that their new anti-shorting rules came out afterwards and propelled the market up. The short selling ban is over on Oct 2, next Thursday, unless they extend it.

I'm a swing trader.....and my most common time frame to hold positions one way or another is about 2 weeks. So from my Thursday morning purchases, Oct 2 is 2 weeks out. Here's what I suspect: The market will be making some kind of an interim high around Oct 1 or 2. That will probably be near the end of my "long leg" of the trades. Then if they don't extend the ban, by Oct 3 we should see short selling again and a dump in the market. One way to play this might be to simply NOT play it at all. If the market is making a new high or interim high on Oct 1, it might just be a good idea to SELL all longs and sit in cash until the next week. Why take the risk? Take the profits, see what happens over the next few days, and then make a decision based on what the gov't does. I think that's the safe way to play it. I may be getting ahead of myself here though. It's quite a leap to predict an interim market high 2 weeks in advance, but it will sure be interesting if it happens that way. I'm certainly going to be looking for it.....

That's pretty much what I was planning on doing, selling everything Oct. 1st/2nd, except for maybe a few smaller shares of the long term stuff that tends to grow no matter what.

DJD, I bought GE before the dividend date on the 18th and I'm still holding it. I have DIG for the oil.

I agree it's a setup. Just like I said on the other thread with guliamo and v4, except my friend had logged into her account and I accidentally wrote it under her name, Stormethia. Anyway, I said that I think the govt. is just giving some of their cronies time to get some of their losses back and sell this time before the annihilation is allowed to continue.

I meant no news as news were silly,what the **** smiling faces on BloombergTV when banks are falling.You know better the news,I know the facts too as I see it.
For markets to rally peple must bid something up,let's see on Monday who is bidding up,it's a hell of a merket you decide,you buy.I am short DJIA futures (loss since Thursday 8,000$) and sleep good as on Crude Oil made 13,000$.
Regarding Market Crashes:
If DJIA could crash in 1987 from 2500 point down 25% in one day,why I ask today market can not crash from 11350 to 9000 in one day.I am not saying it will happen for sure,all I want to bring attention to is that something can be wrong at 11350.
Why DJIA can not be cheaper at 6000 next year and then all the mess will start to clear slowly,stronger banks will take more market share from fallen angels etc., this is how normal market works,one gets hurt other gets stronger.We can't have all the winners all the time,this is not a stock market thing,this is something happens only in dictatrships states like Venezuela,Russia,Sudan,Nigeria,Burma etc., but even in those countries firms are allowed to go bust.
So my last question is:
WHAT THE **** IS GOING TO HAPPEN NEXT.
Plus I want to see Warren Buffett and Willbur Ross more active in general economy sectors not just Buffett buying Constelation Energy,utility business for pennies,75% off from 1 year high,I want to see Buffett buying more risky business,why not AIG or Lehman,why not some bonds of 799 financial firms that are forbiden to short,if the Buffett will buy like crazy then I will reverse my position and go long Russell 2000 but at the moment energy,real hard assets are the only way to survive for the next many years,not the paper on margin calls.
Just think of how the real world trade is leveraged,before some ships from Asia bring the goods to the rest of the world,heroes a-la Lehman trade value of it's goods 30-100 times over real value and all is done on a small margin of up to 5% maybe so I believe we are in a much worse situation than in 1929 and I am strong believer you can't fool the markets long time,when game is over game IS over.Prepare for the crash everybody!

The fact that Warren Buffett is finally opening his wallet and buying anything is a great sign. Your push to have Buffett buy something more risky is ridiculous: His entire investing philosophy is based upon buying simple companies that do NOT have risk. What you're asking for has never happened, and never will, regardless of the market conditions.

You have a market that is still way off of its highs, and a government that has just banned short selling on some stocks, and further guaranteed $100's of billions to backstop problematic companies. There are some companies out there trading at prices 40% to 60% off their highs that still have great cash positions, and P/E ratios down in the dirt.

If you were to apply linear regression to the market and use a standard inflation rate (though inflation is above the average at the moment), the DOW should actually be above 17,000. I actually agree with you: The DOW could drop 25% at any time. Let's look at some of the components though: KO, XOM, MSFT, HD, etc. Look at their historic prices, and look at their P/E's. Are they really so high flying at the moment? I think not, and therefore I don't think a huge drop is around the corner. Furthermore, I believe the Fed will keep pumping more and more money out there, which will eventually prop up housing at the cost of mass inflation (which will push prices and shares up in price, not down).

You're right about leverage being a problem. We're currently deleveraging which is why so much pain is being felt. But not every industry or business is built around being overleveraged like the financials have been. It think we're getting so saturated with bad news in the financials that we forget there are about around 40 sectors out there that ARE NOT financials. How about Technology? Food? Medical?

I think the market will go up, then drop back down some more. I don't think we're going to have a big 25% down day. But if we do..... I'm prepared. I keep about 15% of portfolio in Jan 2010 GLD Options. This past week my "insurance policy" worked like a charm. There's no reason everyone here can't buy one just as I did. I sleep at night too knowing I have that in place.

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You know...I think I speak for most of this community when I say that ROLEX is out of line. Disagree if you want...but lets not let this degenerate into the usual foul, mindless, pornography that we see too often in online anonymus discussion groups. D.Harry has always been respectfull, helpfull, and informative. I hope ROLEXX can manage the same in the future.

Agreed - back to the discussion. My question, doesn't printing all this money and raising the debt ceiling to something like 13 trillion dollars bring about inflation? And doesn't it also put downward pressure on the U.S. Dollar, thus increasing the value of gold and silver? If so, wouldn't DGP be a great play for the long term at this point?

I'd also like to point out that silver and gold supplies on the wholesale and retail markets have been increasingly getting tighter. This, in my opinion would also put upward pressure on precious metals.

I'm a coin dealer by trade and deal with the wholesale precious metals market. We used to be able to buy an ounce of silver for $1.30 over the spot price. Now we are lucky to be able to buy silver at $3.75 - $4.00 over spot. Silver supplies have been extremely tight since March, and have been tighter in the past couple of months.

You are right. There has been somelhing very counter-intuitive about the last month or so. A financial melt down and gold and silver getting slammed along with the rest. I guess the idea that the market is always right is a long term notion. I the short term I think the market is very fickle and unpredictable. But...for us long term buy and hoard types...it makes for some good buying opportunities.

Yes long term buying opportunities are everywhere. My issue is wanting to buy as close to the bottom of each stock's price as possible to maximize my benefit long term. Everytime I think we have reached close enough to the bottom of something, it goes down even more.

Harry has been right on lately. I've doubted him a few times recently because his thoughts seemed counter intuitive, only to be proven wrong.

I think additional correction is not an 'if' - it is a 'when'.
In any case, when markets & currencies are in turmoil - the best insurance is Gold.

RE gold, see my posts on:
http://www.mar​ketguru.com/opi​nions/sp-gold-p​rices/1002,1696
http://www.marke​tguru.com/opinion​s/has-gold-lost-i​ts-shine/1002,1564

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Let's not be personal,OK,but dirty Harry likes to be dirty Harry so where is the abuse.
If someone have 2 weeks plan,let him have it,I just wanted to say that the death of the 11300 DJIA level is around the corner and my additional 6 Dow shorts at this price prove it very well at the moment.
But I am not stopping anybody from buying anything,go and buy as there is much place for all buy orders to be filled today.I expect DJIA even today can close 300-500 points down.

Are you guys short all banks or are you differentiating? I'm long ETFC but realize that it trades mostly with the sector (for now). If the gov't really is taking on all this bad debt then it has no reason not to rocket IMHO.

I'm short the whole sector and the stock market as a whole to be honest. I just don't think we are even near the end of this mess. The "Paulson Plan", if it works will help, but I see the economy and housing still suffering, now longer than anticipated. Thought we would bottom in housing the middle of next year, but now I think we still have a couple more years to go.

The banks had a good run last week, but the fundamentals are still weak in my opinion. Have you tried to get a loan lately. Even with excellent credit it is near impossible to get a loan from any financial institution. Plus, who knows what secrets haven't been uncovered with these financial institutions. It's amazing to me that we avert, for the time being, a financial meltdown and the stock market goes up 1,000 points. We don't even know that the Gov. Bailout will work.

We are now in a recession, although I think most of us knew that already. This one will be deeper than previous recessions due to the fundamentals involved. Plus we now have a debt ceiling of 12 trillion dollars and climbing, with millions being added to it daily in interest. This will impede Obama, or McCain from being able to do anything in the next administration without raising taxes. No comprehensive health care plan, no extension of the Bush tax cuts etc. It's a mess. The falling dollar (due to inflation and the printing press running overtime) will cause gas prices to rise again causing further strains on the economy.

The markets as a whole will have a difficult time reaching new highs as unemployment nears 7%. This will keep downward pressure on the financials, technology and all stocks in general. At this point I'm looking at a long position in REW and DLP. I'm not a doom and gloom type of person, I'm just looking at it realistically in my opinion. I could be wrong, have been before....

I am up 9000$ today on short Dow futures and together with selling buying back Crude Oil at 115.55/114.50
Look at my previous comment for DJIA,it looks we will have "good" last hour.
Dirty Harry,sorry,I hope you are not angry,it was nothing personal,I like good traders and wish you only success!!!