Top 2%

Kohalza

Can Starbucks go any lower?

Started Apr 29 at 4:46 ET (By Kohalza)

Symbols: JVA, PG, PEET, GMCR, A, SBUX, MCD

They are at the 52 week low. How much lower can the share drop? I think we will see a small bounce back following the earnings release tomorrow.
Any thoughts?

7 Comments

Top 1%

guliamo

guliamo

Apr 29 at 6:17 ET

Yes sir, I believe it can. I think Startbucks is selling just about all the coffee it can. They already own stores in all prime locations so new stores will yield less revenue per square foot.
So the only way to go is international.. but that's very tricky.. the brand isn't as strong over seas.. in fact, only robotic America will consume a brand so uniformly.. other countries have different cultures and plenty of their own good coffee..
So Starbucks is selling CD's, DVD's and Christmas cards - anything to keep profits up.. but it's dwindling down.. you just can't beat any more life out of this behemoth.. their earnings growth is.... 1.5%
I'm not saying Starbucks won't continue creating value, but there is no "correction" coming for this baby.

Top 77%

spookytoes

spookytoes

Apr 29 at 9:44 ET

Why is MCD becoming more Starbucks-like and SBUX is becoming more like MCD? Have you noticed MCD emphasising more foofey coffee and SBUX adding drive-thrus and breakfast sandwichs...

Top 1%

verushka1

verushka1

Apr 29 at 11:10 ET

Sure Sbux can go lower. Bad economy in the US- people are saving their money to buy expensive gasoline and very expensive food. MCD has introduced much cheaper and better coffee although CD is a very different experience than SBUX.

They have extended theselvesinto aeaswhere they shouldn't be like music. THat is for sure a fool move.How can they compete with apple itunes in the music area.

On a personal note-their sugar,sugar substitute, etc. all out in the open- everyone helps themselves to handfuls. What do you think that costs them? A hell of alot.

Anyway, this is just my opinion. Don't base your trades on it.

Top 77%

spookytoes

spookytoes

Apr 29 at 3:36 ET

What are other co's in the coffee arena and what are your thoughts: PEET GMCR JVA any others ?

Top 1%

guliamo

guliamo

Apr 30 at 2:18 ET

I think Verushka makes a good point.. with recession bells ringing, I wouldn't go near SBUX.. $6 for a venti frapuccino is the first thing to go when you need more money for gas. If your looking to take a position in consumer goods - go with Proctor & Gamble (PG) - this is a well run, well diversified company.

Top 74%

arawak

arawak

Apr 30 at 10:14 ET

Agreed on the economy note. When you lay out the monthly budget and see that $100/month goes to SBUX.... even in the best of times that's a gratuitous item. From a 3/19/08 article:
"Starbucks said it will woo cash-strapped consumers by roasting coffee a new way, investing in new espresso equipment, and delving into new categories, such as the health and wellness business by the end of the year."

Thanks, but Kenyan Organic Slow Roast isn't going to get me throwing money at you again.

Top 3%

BenGraham

BenGraham

Jul 19 at 3:14 ET

I'd be very tempted by SBUX at, say, ten times last year's earnings, and you might yet see that multiple. Since pricey coffee is a discretionary expense, and a U.S. recession will certainly take a toll on Starbucks' bottom line, I would demand a wide margin of safety. At the same time, I expect Starbucks will survive to grow again. Remember, analysts thought McDonalds had saturated the market at 5,000 stores.

I've seen a lot of remarks to the effect that only Americans are dumb enough to pay four bucks for a cup of coffee, and this just ain't so. Cypriots have a vibrant cafe culture; a Greek coffee or an espresso costs about 1-2 Euro, but there's always a line at the Starbucks outlets in Lefkosia, where a venti iced coffee drink with whipped cream costs around 6 Euro--ten bucks. For the most part these aren't tourists, but young Cypriots with cash to burn.

This post is more than 60 days old. Replying to it might be confusing for other members reading the discussion. By all means, keep the ball rolling and post a new opinion.