While we stare in horror at the global markets falling right through the floor, I thought I would post something a little more specific and, dare I say, off topic.
I have held AMD from about $6 down to its current low of $4. I'm averaging down here and there.
If AMD did everything wrong between 2006 and the start of 2008 (delayed, buggy chips, overpriced purchase of ATI, etc) it is now doing close to everything right.
On the graphics front, AMD has knocked NVIDIA (NVDA) onto the ropes. Seriously. They have released a string of graphics cards that have, on a price/performance level, made everybody all but stand up and applaud the former laggard. NVDA, which used to have 5x market cap, is now being forced to cut prices on an almost monthly basis to keep up with AMD/ATI's (the acronyms have been combined to DAAMIT by friends and foe alike) new products. AMD is even targeting 50% of the discrete graphics market which, just a year ago, would have been considered fantasy. Now, not so much. This quarter's earnings are going to be *very* interesting to see. For the non tech people out there, NVIDIA has long been the reining performance champion.
On the processor side, AMD is looking good. They are currently mass producing their Shanghai processor which will be released to vendors *this month*. That's ahead of schedule, IIRC. The processor will probably not unseat Intel's latest Nehalem offering but it will likely go a long ways to closing the gap. (not to mention Nehalem isn't due
A big X factor with AMD is their so-called Asset Smart strategy which involves some type of breakup that moves the hugely expensive fab plants to, potentially, a separate company. The current economy is no doubt proving to be problematic and may even unhinge the plan (who can get the billions needed to finance the purchase of a chip plant?) but.. nobody really knows what the plan is and the company has not indicated that anything is amiss.
Yes, the global economic situation is probably going to impact semiconductor sales. But the story here is one of market share. If AMD can truly wrest orders from Intel or NVIDIA then it is on the path to recovery.
My only main worry with AMD is its debt load. It spent an awful lot of money to acquire ATI and has suffered greatly at its own hands over the 06-08 period. But if there is a turnaround to happen, and I believe there is, it is starting now.
This is a dynamic company that is out-innovating competitors many times its size. While the ROA and other standard metrics of performance are lacking, to say the least, the "big picture" here points upward.
Top 1%
guliamo
Oct 07 at 6:10 ET
AMD is on my watch list as well..
My question is - why are these guys loosing money for so long?
I tried to dig into their financial reports but still have no answer.
I think AMD has a good thing going in that it won't go bankrupt. If it comes to that, Intel (INTC) will invest in them to keep them afloat and prevent itself from becoming a monopoly, much like Microsoft bailed out Apple in the 90's.
Two horse races are always very interesting.
When the market starts popping, I will seriously consider AMD.
Keep us posted on this company and thanks for the great post.
Top 1%
guliamo
Oct 07 at 9:43 ET
Bravo Arawak!
Talk about hitting the nail on it's head. Your reasoning was the winner as well - the rise is on nvidia warning, not quarterly reports..
Top 74%
arawak
Oct 07 at 9:53 ET
This is cool. I'm happy for them. I'm not selling yet as if AMD is ever going to turn a profit, they're going to do it in the next couple quarters thanks to this deal. That and the technology coming out of AMD is starting to get really good again.
I still need to read more details on the plan. But funny timing on my original post. :)
Top 2%
themoneyman
Oct 07 at 4:50 ET
There might be a change in the trend for AMD in the first or second quarter of 2009. But there is no need to take one for the team until the end of the 4th quarter at the earliest.
Tech is tough right now!
Top 74%
arawak
Oct 07 at 5:25 ET
You make a good point but I don't think they will go much lower than where they are right now. And expectations for AMD have been so pitiful that if they beat guidance by even a bit they will be cast in a new light. I think their graphics division is pulling in big $$ this quarter. Like I wrote, earnings is going to be interesting.